3 Orchard by-the-Park En Bloc Likelihood
How likely 3 Orchard by-the-Park is to be sold en bloc, rated from facts you can check: redevelopment room, age, and the likely owner payout against recent resales.
Very low
- Redevelopment room
- Central AreaNo capURA sets no cap on homes here
- Age
- 9 yrs · freehold90% approvalOwner approval a collective sale needs
- Owner payout vs resale
- At or below recent resalesLow gapLikely en bloc payout vs recent resales
Based on haio data. Not a prediction or a promise.
How we rate it: three facts a reader can check. Data: URA Master Plan 2025 plot ratios and zoning, SLA site areas, URA's 85 sqm-per-home rule, URA Government Land Sales and collective sale prices, and resale prices here.
Redevelopment room: site area times the gross plot ratio on URA Master Plan 2025, divided by 85 sqm, URA's cap on homes outside the Central Area (circular DC22-10). The Central Area has no cap.
Owner payout: what a developer would pay for this land at the median price of residential land sold within 3 km in the last 24 months, shared across today's homes, against the median resale price here over the same 24 months. High gap means the payout is above resale.
The four levels: Very low under 20 years since TOP. Low at 20 to 24. Medium at 25 to 29, or 30 and older when the room is under 2x or the payout is at or below resale. High at 30 and older when neither fact fails, including when we can't work either out, so that High rests on age alone. Not enough data when we don't have the completion year.
Checked against 97 collective sales since 2016, each rated a year before the sale: 48 High, 17 Medium, 8 Low, 3 Very low, 21 without a completion year. Of 485 condos in the same districts that did not sell: 38 High, 27 Medium, 64 Low, 356 Very low.
Approval: under section 84A of the Land Titles (Strata) Act, a collective sale needs 80% approval once 10 years have passed since the latest TOP (or CSC if there was no TOP), and 90% approval before that, counted both by share value and by strata area (excluding accessory lots). The 2026 amendment passed by Parliament lowers this to 70% approval at 40 to 59 years and 65% approval at 60 years or more, from a start date not yet announced. We count age from the TOP year we hold, so a building in its 10th, 40th or 60th year shows both sides.