RIVER MODERN

In plain English:adds tomorrow’s competition — today’s new launches that will resell once their 4-year SSD is up (scaled to how many actually sell, so it’s an estimate).

Projected resale(the dotted band) = today’s new launches returning as resale supply once their first owners clear the 4-year SSD. It is a haio estimate, not a booked sale: each launch becomes eligible to resell about 4-5 years after launch, once the 4-year seller’s stamp duty lifts. We then count only the share that real past resales show actually sell each year — ~0.6% by year 1, ~2.3% by year 2, ~6.1% by year 3, ~9.1% by year 4, ~12.1% by year 5, rising to ~27% by year 10 — so the band is the competition we’d actually expect, not every unit that could sell. The booked-resale band always wins where real caveats already exist. The ratio includes this projected supply.