The project's actual land parcel, from URA data over a OneMap basemap.
Condo27 September 2026
Lucerne Grand: A $1,132 psf ppr Tender And A $2,251 psf Developer From-Price
Nine sections on Lucerne Grand, with the land price set against the 35 other Singapore-wide government land awards of 2025 and 2026, 23,707 exact-unit resale and sub-sale pairs across 123 labelled City Developments projects, the brochure's plans, three developer from-prices with a haio unit model, nineteen comparables within 2 km and the site's own exit audience. The unit price list remains the gap.
$1,132 psf ppr paid for the Lakeside Drive site at a six-bid government tender, about 15% below the $1,331 median of the 35 other Singapore-wide government land awards of 2025 and 2026.
570 homes in five 17-storey blocks at 30 to 38 Lakeside Drive, 99-year leasehold from 8 Sept 2025, District 22, expected vacant possession Dec 2031.
$1,835 psf illustrative breakeven on haio's published cost model, per square foot of maximum GFA, against a $2,285 psf District 22 new-sale median; an upstream feed's $2,181 is not yet reconciled with it.
From $1.498m for a 624 sq ft two-bedroom, $1.988m for a 883 sq ft three-bedroom and $2.788m for a 1,152 sq ft four-bedroom, the developer's own from-prices of 16 Sept 2026; no unit price list yet.
23,707 exact-unit pairs across 123 past City Developments projects, resales recorded Mar 1995 to Sept 2026, at a 3.5% median annualised gross return, and no freehold comparable within 2 km.
Published by haio Research on haio.sg — Singapore property analysis built on official URA, HDB and data.gov.sg records.
Read this article with its live charts at https://haio.sg/news/lucerne-grand-a-data-backed-analysis/
Lucerne Grand opens its preview with its land record, unit mix, plans and three developer from-prices on the table. The unit price list is still missing, so every unit-level figure here is a labelled haio model.
1. Project Details: A 570-Home Site Beside Lakeside Station
Item
Detail
Project
Lucerne Grand, with Lucerne Galleria at the first storey
Site
Lakeside Drive, awarded government land sale parcel
Address
30, 32, 34, 36, 38 Lakeside Drive
Developer
CDL Polaris Properties (homes) and CDL Polaris Commercial (galleria), wholly owned by City Developments Limited, CDL stake 100%
District
D22, Boon Lay, Jurong and Tuas. Market segment OCR
Tenure
99-year leasehold commencing 8 Sept 2025
Homes
570 in five 17-storey blocks, plus 9 commercial units
Lucerne Galleria
935 sq m at the first storey: a 700 sq m supermarket, 4 shops totalling 72 sq m and 4 restaurants totalling 163 sq m
Site area
13,485.1 sq m, or 145,152 sq ft
Maximum gross floor area
49,895 sq m, plot ratio 3.7, URA award record
Carpark
Estimated 456 lots, an 80% provision, and 6 accessible lots
Architect and builder
ADDP Architect LLP; United Tec Construction Pte Ltd
Nearest MRT
Lakeside, East-West Line, EW26, 0.12 km straight line
Nearest primary school
Rulang Primary School, 0.39 km straight line
Preview and bookings
Preview from 18 Sept 2026 and booking day 3 Oct, both announced by the developer; cheque cut-off 29 Sept and e-balloting 1 Oct are estimated
The awarded Lakeside Drive parcel in red, beside Lakeside MRT station.
Source: haio land records, OneMap basemap · 18 Sept 2026.
The developer calls the site directly linked to Lakeside station, and the site plan shows the rail track above the Wellness Valley. The brochure gives no distances, so every distance here is a haio straight line.
Rulang at 0.39 km, Shuqun at 0.48, Lakeside at 0.63 and Boon Lay Garden at 0.75 are within 1 km. At Rulang in 2025 that meant a ballot: Phase 2C drew 98 applicants for 40 places; citizens within 1 km balloted 85 for 40.
2. Land Price: $1,132 psf ppr Against The 35 Other 2025-2026 Government Land Awards
Government Land Tenders — psf ppr
Every bid at the Lakeside Drive tender, as land rates rather than headline sums.
Released on 8 Apr 2025 and awarded on 9 Jun 2025 for $608,000,000, the parcel works out at $1,132.08 psf ppr over its 49,895 sq m of floor area, URA's figure to the cent. The winner cleared the second bid by 10.4%.
GLS Land Prices in Context, Awards Jan 2025 to Sep 2026, $ psf ppr
Lakeside Drive's land rate against 35 government land awards, 2025 to 2026.
Source: URA and HDB tender-award releases, every residential, EC and mixed-use award of Jan 2025 to Sept 2026 with a published maximum GFA; both re-checked 26 Sept 2026, no award since 18 Sept · 26 Sept 2026.
Against those 35 awards, $1,132 sits about 15% below the $1,331 median, 24th of 36 bars: 23 awards were dearer and 12 cheaper, across a range of $692 to $1,865. The newest, Lorong Puntong on 18 Sept 2026, took $1,612.
Breakeven Ladder (haio estimates)
The land rate built up to an illustrative breakeven, on haio's assumptions.
Source: haio cost model, land rate from the URA tender result · 18 Sept 2026.
The ladder puts breakeven near $1,835 psf, in a $1,812 to $1,894 band across the $350 to $413 psf construction range. Every rung is per square foot of the 49,895 sq m maximum GFA, charged at one rate to homes and the 935 sq m galleria alike: the model carves out no separate commercial land value and does not convert GFA to saleable area. haio's project record also carries $2,181 psf from an upstream feed whose area basis and commercial allocation are not documented. That $346 gap is unreconciled and under verification; neither figure is the developer's cost.
3. Developer Track Record: City Developments, Labelled Project By Project
Select a column heading to sort.
Wholly owned, CDL 100%
64
8,296
3.5%
7,008
1,267
21
7.0 yrs
Joint venture, CDL under 100%
52
13,673
3.6%
11,954
1,693
26
6.2 yrs
Stake not stated or sold
7
1,738
2.9%
1,407
326
5
7.4 yrs
All 123 projects, exact-unit pairs
123
23,707
3.5%
20,369
3,286
52
6.5 yrs
Source: CDL Property Portfolio Residential, June 2026, 155 Singapore projects, stakes as printed, partners' own projects not counted; haio exact-unit pairs dated by resale, resales recorded Mar 1995 to Sept 2026 · 26 Sept 2026.
Each pair is a resale or sub-sale and the unit's previous sale: same project, floor and stack, plus block where numbers repeat. Returns are gross and annualised, before duties, financing and selling costs.
Select a column heading to sort.
Source: haio exact-unit pairs dated by resale, resales recorded Mar 1995 to Sept 2026, all holds, medians from 5 pairs; EC projects marked EC; partner named where haio's project record names one · 26 Sept 2026.
Left out, and why
Count
Pair flagged: return beyond -50% to 200% a year
147
Pair flagged: later sale was a new sale
44
Pair flagged: areas more than 5% apart
7
Sale set aside: block unclear
1,281
Sale unpaired: an adjacent sale was set aside
314
Sale set aside: no unit number
184
Source: haio pair flags and exclusion ledger, the 132 portfolio projects haio matches; 5 pairs carry two flags, so 193 pairs; 1,436 of the 1,920 sales are resales or sub-sales · 26 Sept 2026.
Of the 155 rows, 123 are tabled; 3 have only flagged pairs, 5 no resale yet, Avenue Park's 7 resales lack unit numbers. 17 bungalows, walk-ups and small estates have no pairable sale, 5 are unlaunched, 1 is this site.
4. Unit Mix: 570 Homes Across Seven Types
Select a column heading to sort.
2 Bedroom
B1
96
624 sq ft
$541 a month
2 Bedroom + Study
B2S, B3S
126
667 to 710 sq ft
$541 a month
3 Bedroom
C1, C2, C3, C3a
125
872 to 904 sq ft
$541 a month
3 Bedroom Premium + Study
CP1S to CP4S
128
947 to 1,001 sq ft
$541 a month
4 Bedroom Premium
DP1, DP2, DP2a
47
1,152 to 1,195 sq ft
$642 a month
4 Bedroom Premium + Study
DP1S
16
1,345 sq ft
$642 a month
4 Bedroom Premium + Entertainment
DP1E
32
1,432 sq ft
$642 a month
Source: sales kit p79, sizes estimated including PES and subject to final survey; maintenance at $33.80 per share value a month excluding GST, updated Sept 2026 · 18 Sept 2026.
The mix is weighted to families: 253 three-bedroom formats, 44% of the project, 222 two-bedroom at 39% and 95 four-bedroom at 17%. There is no one-bedroom type, so the smallest entry is a 624 sq ft two-bedroom.
Bedroom Performance by District
Average annualised returns by bedroom count, District 22 against Singapore.
Source: haio exact-unit pairs, District 22 against Singapore, held 4 to under 10 years, every resale recorded to Sept 2026 with no purchase-date filter; bars are averages, medians in the chart's data table · 26 Sept 2026.
Held four to under ten years, District 22 averages 3.9% a year for two-bedders on 726 pairs, 3.8% for three-bedders on 1,884 and 4.8% for four-bedders on 283, each above the island. These are averages; an earlier line that four-bedders also lead on medians is withdrawn until the medians are re-read.
5. Site Plan And Floor Plans: The Brochure's Pages, One Type At A Time
Floor Plans — browse by unit type
The stack schematic, the site plan and every floor plan, grouped by unit type.
Source: developer brochure p19 to p27, each printed spread split into its single pages · 18 Sept 2026.
Ceilings are 2.79 m in living, dining and bedrooms; in DP1S and DP1E the living, dining and study or entertainment rooms are 2.9 m. The (P) plans are the #02 units with a private enclosed space; stack 32 starts at #04.
Select a column heading to sort.
Welcome
Basement 1
Arrival lobby
Club Lucerne
Level 2
Gymnasium, Lucerne Clubhouse I, changing rooms with steam room
Aqua Valley
Level 2
Lap pool, spa cove, pool deck, pool lounge, aqua cabana, aqua oasis, aqua lounge, grand lawn
Wellness Valley
Level 1
Outdoor fitness, wellness garden, pets garden
Social Valley
Level 3
Multi-purpose court, two gourmet pavilions, kids splash pool and pool deck, changing room, Lucerne Clubhouse II, garden, social and co-working lounges, swing garden
Commercial and public
Level 1
Community plaza, shops, supermarket, restaurants, commercial bicycle parking
Source: sales kit p105 site plan legend and p106 facilities plan · 26 Sept 2026.
The kit's distance plan, marked indicative, shows about 35.5 m across the pool between Blocks 32 and 34, about 35 m from Block 36 to the MRT track, and 7.2 to 7.5 m where Block 38 meets Blocks 30 and 36.
Item
Stated provision
Smart home
Digital lockset, foyer lighting control, IP-camera surveillance, home gateway, air-con control in living room and master bedroom
Appliance and fitting brands
Bosch, Samsung, Geberit, hansgrohe and Franke; final brand and model at the developer's discretion
Green features
Energy-efficient air-conditioning, LED lighting with motion sensors in common areas, EV charging, pneumatic waste collection
The kit's price page reads coming soon, so these are from-prices, not a list. Two quoted sizes are not the smallest of their type: 883 sq ft is C2, not the 872 sq ft C1, and 1,001 sq ft is not the 947 sq ft CP1S.
Stack View — market indicative estimates
haio model estimates for all 570 homes, calibrated to seven category from-prices; adjust the slider.
Source: haio stack and floor model over the sales kit's roster of 570 homes; the seven advertised cells carried exact. $2,251 psf is the developer's 3 Bedroom from-rate, not a haio figure; about $2,444 psf is haio's area-weighted model average; the category from-prices are not confirmed prices for any unit · 18 Sept 2026.
Select a column heading to sort.
New sale
111
$2,285
$2,176 to $2,370
Resale
369
$1,481
$1,193 to $1,776
Sub-sale
0
No sub-sale caveats recorded in this window
All non-landed private
480
$1,646
$1,284 to $2,077
Source: haio transaction records, non-landed private sales in District 22 over the 12 months to 26 Sept 2026, latest recorded sale 15 Sept · 26 Sept 2026.
The $2,251 psf three-bedroom from-price is $34 under the district's new-sale median and inside its middle half; the $2,420 four-bedroom rate clears the new-sale upper quartile. The sub-sale row is a genuine zero.
7. Affordability: What The From-Prices Buy Elsewhere
Instead of Buying — what the budget gets elsewhere
What each from-price buys elsewhere, at least the same size, in recorded sales.
Source: haio transaction records, 12 months to 6 Sept 2026, condo sales of at least the chosen size within the from-price; from-prices from the developer's press release and a marketing flyer, both 16 Sept 2026 · 18 Sept 2026.
The entry quantum runs from $1.498m for the 624 sq ft two-bedroom to $3.398m for the 1,432 sq ft four-bedroom with an entertainment room. The widget compares each advertised category against recorded sales, not listings.
8. Comparables: Nineteen Projects Within 2 km, All 99-Year, Five Of Them ECs
Comparable Projects — median $ psf, 12 months
Median psf over 12 months within 2 km. Tap a highlighted bar for its deals.
Source: haio transaction records and URA caveats, projects within 2 km with at least three sales in the 12 months to 26 Sept 2026, latest recorded sale 11 Sept; chart data as read that day · 26 Sept 2026.
Sora at $2,361 psf, 1.19 km away, is the only neighbour above the $2,251 from-price; Lakegarden at $2,224 and Tengah Garden at $2,113 sit below it. The Lakefront Residences across the road traded at $1,761 on 17 resales.
Five of the nineteen are executive condominiums, marked (EC) on the chart: Novo Place and Otto Place on new sales, and Lake Life, Summerdale and Westmere on resale. ECs are sold under eligibility rules and a five-year MOP from TOP, and become fully private only ten years after TOP, so their medians are not like-for-like private condo prices.
Freehold vs Leasehold Returns
Leasehold returns in District 22; the district has no freehold record.
Source: haio exact-unit pairs, District 22, filtered by purchase date (bought on or after 20 Feb 2010), resales to Sept 2026, held 4 to under 10 years; freehold: no sample; leasehold: 1,389 pairs · 26 Sept 2026.
District 22 has no freehold condo pairs, so the freehold bar reads no sample. Bought from 20 Feb 2010 and held four to under ten years, 1,389 leasehold pairs returned a 3.09% median a year, 92.6% of them gains. All nineteen comparables are 99-year.
9. Exit Audience: Who The Future Buyer Is, And What They Can Buy Instead
The Exit Audience
HDB households by the year they can sell, against competing private supply.
Source: haio exit-audience and competing-supply models, centred on the site at 1.3435694, 103.7200369; bars are yearly inflows, and existing stock is stated separately. Move the radius slider to change the ring · 26 Sept 2026.
Within 4 km haio counts 148,630 HDB households: 112,914 free to sell now, 16,313 inside their minimum occupation period, 19,403 yet to reach it; 4,350 clear in 2031, the possession year. Who could move, not demand.
On the 26 Sept read the ring held 11,240 competing units: 11,028 resale homes clear of seller's stamp duty across 32 projects plus 212 unsold in 3 launches, none of them the subject's 570. At 2 km it was 7,424.
That is the existing stock. The bars are a different measure: yearly inflows of homes whose SSD lapses or that launch, from 2026 to 2030. Each project total listed under the chart adds every charted year and supply type, so it is not a count of the project's homes.
On a 27 Sept re-read, following a database fix, an earlier read of this section put three of those totals over their real unit count (Novo Place 538 against 504 homes, Sora 455 against 440, The Lakegarden Residences 318 against 306) by adding a resale count to a new-launch count that overlapped it, and let Novo Place's homes enter resale by SSD expiry rather than by its Minimum Occupation Period. Corrected: Sora settles at exactly its 440 homes, 206 new launch in 2026 plus 234 resale from 2027 to 2030. The Lakegarden Residences reaches 285 of its 306 homes; the remaining 21 are sold but never lodged as a caveat, left unplaced rather than guessed. Novo Place is an executive condominium, and its 504 homes now enter supply at 2032, when its Minimum Occupation Period clears five years after a TOP that is itself under verification (one source dates it Q1 2027, giving MOP 2032; a second dates it 2029, which would give MOP 2034; both are outside this window), so Novo Place contributes zero here in every year from 2026 to 2030.
The same correction also caught supply the earlier read had missed: Copen Grand, another executive condominium, reaches its own Minimum Occupation Period in 2030 and adds 444 units that year, on top of Tengah Garden Residences' 863. The ring's 2030 resale total is now 1,681 units.
haio's Take
On the durable side, Lakeside station at 0.12 km with a covered link, four primary schools inside 1 km and a public land basis 15% below the 2025-2026 government median cannot be copied by a later launch on another plot.
The developer record is checkable rather than asserted: 23,707 exact-unit pairs across 123 projects at 3.5% a year gross, with 3,286 losses, and the vehicle building this site has no exits of its own.
What gives pause is still unpriced. Three from-prices and four flyer rows are not a price list, two quoted sizes are not the smallest of their type, and the four-bedroom rate clears the new-sale upper quartile.
The lease deserves weight on its own terms: no freehold comparable within 2 km and no freehold record in the district anchor a resale floor. And 570 near-identical homes will sell into a 4 km ring holding 11,240 rivals.
The number that settles it is the price list. Read it against the $1,132 land basis, haio's $1,835 model breakeven (the feed's $2,181 still unreconciled), the district's $2,285 new-sale median and the three from-prices already in print.
Estimate only, not financial advice. A model-generated guide from public data, not a formal valuation; actual prices and bank valuations may differ, so verify before acting. haio accepts no liability for decisions made in reliance on it.
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